Analyst consensus 2019
As a reminder, Q3 2019 faces a tough comparable sales comparison from the prior year, driven in part by a 50bps net benefit from Hurricane Florence seen in the prior year quarter. This creates a comp sales headwind in Q3 2019 as we lap the benefit seen last year.
That said, we expect Hurricane Dorian had a favorable impact to sales in Q3 2019, though it should only partially offset the 50bps Hurricane Florence headwind we face this quarter. Please disregard the impact of Hurricane Dorian on operating income and sales, as this will be specified with the disclosure of our Q3 results.
Q3 will be impacted by approximately +260 bps (due to National Holiday on a Sunday in the quarter instead of Saturday in 2018 and the addition of 1 extra selling day not in the previous year period)
- Positive Easter effect +110 bps on comparable sales
- As a reminder, the US business will be impacted by the Stop & Shop strike in Q2. As it relates to the strike impact, we mentioned on the May 8th Q1 earnings call that:
- Current €/$ rate is estimated at 1.12 for the quarter
- Positive Easter impact is around +70 bps on comparable sales
- Positive calendar impact due to a difference in trading days and a positive Easter impact, the net impact is expected at around +80 bps on comparable sales (note that while Q1 comparable sales were impacted by -200 bps due to Easter/trading day shifts, we experienced a smaller recovery of +80 bps in Q2 due to further unfavorable trading day shifts in May/June)
- Positive Easter impact expected at around +50 bps on comparable sales