Q4/FY 2019 calendar shifts and other notable items to consider:
- As a reminder, Q4 2019 faces a comparable sales comparison headwind from the prior year due to a 30bps net benefit from weather events in the prior year quarter. This creates a comp sales headwind in Q4 2019 as we lap the benefit seen last year. We do not believe there was a material impact from weather events in Q4 2019 which would offset this headwind.
- As a reminder, we announced on December 10th that the supply chain transition will result in $4 million in transition costs in Q4 2019, which did not materially affect our previously issued outlook for the year.
- Current €/$ rate is estimated at 1.107 for the quarter.
- Q4 will be impacted approximately -30 bps (due to calendar shift)
- As a reminder, we announced on December 10th that beginning in the Q4 2019 earnings release, reported results will include the full impacts from the supply chain transformation. Our underlying operating profit, which is an alternative performance measure, will include the ongoing effects of the supply chain transformation. We will also provide a supplementary disclosure of transition expenses related to the supply chain transformation for informational purposes. Transition expenses include legal/consulting, IT transition, procurement and replenishment transition costs as well as facility start-up costs.
Analyst consensus as on October 21, 2019
Q3 2019 calendar shifts and other notable items to consider:
As a reminder, Q3 2019 faces a tough comparable sales comparison from the prior year, driven in part by a 50bps net benefit from Hurricane Florence seen in the prior year quarter. This creates a comp sales headwind in Q3 2019 as we lap the benefit seen last year.
That said, we expect Hurricane Dorian had a favorable impact to sales in Q3 2019, though it should only partially offset the 50bps Hurricane Florence headwind we face this quarter. Please disregard the impact of Hurricane Dorian on operating income and sales, as this will be specified with the disclosure of our Q3 results.
Q3 will be impacted by approximately +260 bps (due to National Holiday on a Sunday in the quarter instead of Saturday in 2018 and the addition of 1 extra selling day not in the previous year period)
Analyst consensus as on July 24, 2019
Q2 2019 calendar shifts and other notable items to consider:
- Positive Easter effect +110 bps on comparable sales
- As a reminder, the US business will be impacted by the Stop & Shop strike in Q2. As it relates to the strike impact, we mentioned on the May 8th Q1 earnings call that:
- During the 11 day strike, the sales impact was estimated to be around $200m (note that the strike will also impact comparable store sales), which had a $90-$110m impact to UOP
- There is a sales ramp up period subsequent to the 11 day strike, however, it was too early to say exactly what the full impact to Q2 would be at the time of the earnings call
- We expected to be able to mitigate any margin loss from the sales ramp up period over the course of the year, therefore, the net UOP loss related to the strike was expected to be $90-$110mm for the year
- We will provide an update on the strike impact when we release our earnings results on August 7th
- Current €/$ rate is estimated at 1.12 for the quarter
- Positive Easter impact is around +70 bps on comparable sales
- Positive calendar impact due to a difference in trading days and a positive Easter impact, the net impact is expected at around +80 bps on comparable sales (note that while Q1 comparable sales were impacted by -200 bps due to Easter/trading day shifts, we experienced a smaller recovery of +80 bps in Q2 due to further unfavorable trading day shifts in May/June)
- Positive Easter impact expected at around +50 bps on comparable sales
Analyst consensus as on January 18, 2019